The Most Important Pieces of Housing Data

Several economists, financial pundits, bankers, and real estate experts have predicted for the past several years - using high tech and complex formulas - that the housing market shall continue to recover this year and for the next several years. While the news is generally optimistic from most of the pundits, there are two simple and easy-to-understand visualizations you can use to predict the return of the housing market yourself.

The first important graph to evaluate when it comes to predicting the return of the housing market, is the graph below. While the information on the graph is consistent (i.e. boring) it highlights a very key element of housing demand.

The net population growth - via birth rate and an influx of immigrants - of the United States has increased every year at approximately 3.0% for the past 30 plus years. The Census Bureau predicts this same growth rate, if not slightly higher in some years, for the next 20 plus years. What does this mean for the housing market? It means that demand for housing will continue to rise because new generations of the population will need a place to live.

The next important piece of data when it comes to predicting a housing market recovery is in the image below. When comparing the two images, the picture on the left is a map of the United States from 1960 and the image on the right is a map of the United States from 2015.

What are the differences between the two images? Trick question, there are no differences. The maps are the exact same. The United States has not produced any new land in the last 50 years. What does this mean for the housing market? It means that land is a limited resource, and an increase demand for the same supply is good news for those who own or invest in real estate.

Demand for housing will always be there. Only a few major shifts in the current way of life will ever reduce the demand for housing. Those major shifts would be if homeless living ever becomes the norm; if new land mass was added to the United States - which is not impossible, but improbable; and if the population of the United States was ever to shrink - which all indicators point to the population growing at a consistent rate for the foreseeable future.

While demand for housing will always be present, the level and amount of demand has always been in flux depending on the year or decade. For example, in 2000 the housing market was at an equilibrium point with supply and demand remaining at steady levels. In 2005, housing demand far exceeded housing supply and new and existing homes were practically flying off the shelves. In 2011, most sellers had difficultly giving away their homes.

With the last several years of the housing market recovery, buyers have slowly and tentatively re-entered the housing market - if they have re-entered the housing market at all. Think of water building up behind a dam. Water will eventually make its way through the dam, either by force or in a controlled manner. In 2005, one could think of homebuyers flooding the housing market by force. While this provides a short-term gain for all those involved in the real estate industry, it is not sustainable. Instead, we should focus on release the flood waters (i.e. homebuyers) in a controlled and sustainable manner.

To better illustrate this point of pent-up demand, take a look at the chart below from Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist from the National Association of Realtors.


In this chart, Dr. Yun highlights the key points in pent-up demand. If we think of the year 2000 as an equilibrium year for housing (and we can because in the year 2000 no one was talking about hosing, nothing good and nothing bad happened in housing therefore it was uneventful and used a constant for future comparisons) we can see that while the population of the United States grew in the past decade and a half, home sales declined in the last decade and a half. This pent-up demand will be the driving force for the housing market recovery.

So the next time you hear of financial advisers, real estate experts, and business pundits talk about the pros and cons of the housing market recovery, just remember these two simple charts and images and rest assured that the housing market will return.

6 Not-So Hidden Gems in Tampa Bay

Nestled into Florida's West Coast on the beautiful Gulf of Mexico, the Tampa Bay area is a bustling metropolis filled with a vibrant cultural scene, a thriving academic world, a high-tech hot spot, and of course a recreational paradise. The Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metropolitan area is the largest in the state of Florida not only because of the vast influx of people moving all across the country, but also because a large number of residents decide to make Tampa their permanent home.

Whether you are new to town, or have lived in Tampa your whole life, there are several hidden (and some not-so-secret) places and scenes that you need to know about to take in all that the Tampa Bay area has to offer.

Craft Beer

USA Today recently announced that Tampa was one of the top 10 cities in America for those looking for hand-crafted beers and smaller, unique breweries. Such fan favorites include Cigar City Brewing - which brews its popular Jai Alai IPA and Florida Cracker white beer. Cigar City offers a nod to the rich history of Tampa Bay while appealing to modern beer aficionados too.

Art Scene

The Tampa and St. Petersburg area are home to some of the best art museums in the southeastern United States while places like the The Dali Museum (home to an impressive collection of artwork from the painter Salvador Dali), the Tampa Museum of Art, and the Florida Museum of Photographic Arts. Plus, every year in the month of March, Tampa plays host to the Gasparilla Arts Month which features the Gasparilla Music Festival and the internationally recognized Gasparilla Film Festival.

Sporting Foods

For the intense professional hockey fans or the raucous concert goers in downtown Tampa, the Amelia Arena provides a unique blend of fine cuisine that will surely change you mind about what "stadium food" should taste like. Check out the Firestick Grill and Mr. Empanada the next time you cheer on the Bolts!

Cigars

In the 1920s, the city of Tampa was the largest producer of cigars in the entire world making anywhere from 500,000 to nearly 1,000,000 cigars every year. That is why Tampa has the nickname Cigar City. Ybor City, near downtown Tampa, was the epicenter of this cigar production. Today, you can still see several of the old cigar factories that dotted the city's skyline for decades. Be sure light up an Oliva cigar the next time you stroll down 7th Avenue in Ybor City.

Cuban Sandwiches

One of the best sandwich varieties of all-time is the Cuban sandwich. A proper Cuban sandwich - one with ham, salami, roasted pork, swiss cheese, mustard, and a pickle on two freshly baked slices of Cuban bread - is the highlight for many restaurants throughout the Tampa Bay area. Visit almost any restaurant (even the sushi places have Cuban sandwich rolls!) and you'll be sure to find their own special blend of the Cuban sandwich. But for my personal favorite, you will have to check out the Cuban sandwich at The Columbia Restaurant in Ybor City.

The Beaches
Probably the worst kept secret in all of the Tampa Bay area is the access to the hundreds of miles of pristine beaches and coastlines. Whether you like the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico or the great fishing spots in Tampa Bay, the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater region has it all for you. For some of the best beaches in the country, I would check out Anna Maria Island and Fort DeSoto Park.

So the next time you are out exploring your new hometown (or your hold hometown) be sure to take in some of these great not-so hidden sights and sounds of the Tampa Bay area.

Sources: Visit Tampa Bay, Community Profiles of Tampa Bay

Moving from Boston to Tampa

Are you moving or relocation from Boston to the Tampa Bay area? Not to worry, there are plenty of similarities between these two great cities that will make you feel right at home once you move in. Here are some of my favorite ways to make the new Sun Coast feel just like the old Northeast.

Moving from Boston to Tampa? Great! Welcome to your new home.

History

Early Americans v. Pirates

Yes, the city of Boston played a crucial role in the founding of this country in the early days of the 13 Original Colonies, but the city of Tampa has its own brand of historical significance. Each year, Tampa recognizes its history of besieging pirates by playing host to the Gasparilla Pirate Festival - part party, part history.

Professional Sports

While Boston's professional football team makes its way to another Super Bowl, Tampa Bay's Buccaneers mop up the bottom of the league by having the first overall draft pick. Nevertheless, the Tampa Bay area loves its own sports teams including the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Bay's professional hockey franchise (who, as of this writing, were in first place in the Eastern Conference.) If baseball is your sport, both the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox play in the same division, so you'll be able to see your old team several times a year.

Higher Education

True, the Boston area is well-known as the capital of higher learning in the United States, but the Tampa Bay area is home to two of the best universities in the state with the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. USF boasts some of the highest patent-pending and patented research of colleges and universities in the world, and Tampa's flagship college has one of the best MBA programs in the southeast.

Coastal Waters

Nantucket Island v. Longboat Key

Both residents and visitors to the cities of Boston and Tampa have a love of all things water and beaches, thanks in large part to their proximity to the coastline. While the state of Massachusetts is home to some of the great colder-weather coastal towns and cities such as Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket; the state of Florida will feel right at home for those from the northeast with places like Anna Maria Island, St. Armand's Circle and Longboat Key.

Business Services

Some of the largest business industries in both great cities are the business and financial services sector. That's great news for those looking to keep their jobs but move to a different city, or big companies looking to move headquarters to a warmer, more business-friendly state that already has a large business service sector ready to service those big companies.

So if you're worried about moving from Boston to the Tampa Bay area, don't be! There is plenty to do, hear, and see here to make you feel right at home.

Time to Sell Your Single-Family Investment Property

A recent report from RealtyTrac, a provider of housing data, surveyed single-family homes in particular markets across the country in December of last year. Comparing the results from its most recent survey to those from three years ago, RealtyTrac suggested it might be time for investors of single-family homes to sell their investments. The results concluded that some investors could stand to make as much as 38% - 43% return on their initial investment if a home was purchased by the middle of 2012.

However, many investors, institutions, and economic advisors suggest that if investors hold on to their properties for much longer, they may not see as much growth as they had in the past three years. While double-digit increases in appreciated value were the norm, experts predict that 2015 will have a leveling off of home appreciation.

While this leveling off may have a less than favorable effect on institutional-type investors, current and upcoming home buyers - as well as small- to mid-sized investors - may reap some of the benefits. As profit margins hit their peak in the early part of 2015, investors may look to sell these investment vehicles to maximize their profit on both rental income and appreciated value.

When there are more homes on the market, buyers tend to have more favorable terms when it comes to negotiations. Currently, areas of Florida are seeing less than 5 month housing supply, and it some areas around a 4 month housing supply. Generally, a 6 month housing supply indicates a stable real estate market. Anything below that threshold indicates a seller's market.

Experts predict that the most likely buyers for investment properties will be smaller, local investors who will still use the property as a rent producing asset. These smaller investors are benefiting from the easing of financing qualifications that allows them to leverage some of their investment. Previously, institutional-type investors did not need financing as they could use cash to make their purchase and improvements of the property.

Moreover, local investors will have a significant advantage over large investors in that they are more grounded in the day-to-day operations of the rental. Leasing, maintenance, and turn-over issues are all solved better when done on the local level.

5 Reasons Your Home Isn't Selling

Are you currently thinking of selling your home? Are you working with a real estate agent who is trying to sell your home? Or, are you trying to sell your home yourself? If you answered yes to any one of these questions, this blog post is for you.

Selling your home can be a monumental challenge, and there are several risks and factors involved. To make sure you have the best chance of selling your home, make sure to be aware of these five factors that will slow down the sale of any home.

1. Price

As a homeowner, you have the authority to declare what price you would like to set for your home. Real estate agents will give their recommendation for a most likely selling price, but the homeowner has the final say. That being said, a homeowner (and a real estate agent) cannot determine the final sales price of a home – the market dictates at what price your home will sell. It is best to first list your home for sale as close to a fair market price so have the best chance of attracting the most buyers in the shortest amount of time possible. Set the price too high, and you won't get any buyers. Set the price too low, and you won't get the money you're looking to get.

2. Terms & Conditions of a Sale

Beyond the price of a home, homeowners have the ability to determine their own terms and conditions of the sale of the home. A homeowner who has restrictive language in his or contracts or does not make efforts in good faith to successfully sell a home can significantly delay the selling of his or her home or even run the risk of losing the sale completely. 

3. Supply and Demand

While you as a homeowner can set the price of your home and the terms and conditions of the sale, you cannot control how many other homeowners are looking to buy or sell their home at any given time. If you are trying to sell your home in a buyer’s market or when the economy is down, you will have difficulty selling your home at the price you want.

4. Availability of Financing

Most buyers require financing when purchasing a home, and easy access to this financing varies depending on the status of the economy. If interest rates are high and home affordability is low, selling a home can be difficult if there are fewer buyers in the market for a home.

5. Marketing Efforts

When selling your home, the critical piece a real estate agent plays in the transaction is the advertising of your property. The more places online and the more ways in person an agent markets your home (and the better the agent does this), the better chance you will have of selling your home at the price you want.

Making sure to stay away from these six pitfalls will be the best way you can sell your home for the most amount of money in the shortest amount of time possible with as few headaches as possible.

Tampa Housing Superlatives

Every year, the Tampa housing market produces some unique homes, mansions, and estates that have features that range from the superfluous to the outlandish. To give you a better idea of some of the more interesting properties that sold last year in the greater Tampa Bay area, below is a list of some of best residential real estate superlatives. In no particular order, here they are.

(Each superlative will have the address of the sold property as well as the final sales price.)

Most Bathrooms

#5. 8 full, 0 half

16209 Villarreal de Avila, Tampa -  $2,700,000

#4. 9 full, 1 half

712 N. Casey Rd., Osprey - $8,000,000

#3. 9 full, 2 half

3 Mountain Lake, Lake Wales - $544,000

#2. 10 full, 1 half

2850 Union St., Clearwater - $3,128,500

#1. 10 full, 3 half

706 Guisando de Avila, Tampa - $5,580,000

706 Guisando de Avila

Most Bedrooms

#5. 8

20880 Morgan Rd., Land O' Lakes - $700,000

#4. 8

10304 Carroll Shores Pl., Tampa - $1,220,000

#3. 8

712 N. Casey Rd., Osprey - $8,000,000

#2. 9

9806 Detrop St., Riverview - $455,000

#1. 10

706 Guisando de Avila, Tampa - $5,580,000

9806 Detrop St.

Largest Homes

#5. 11,495 sq. ft.

125 18th St., Belleair Beach - $6,700,000

#4. 12,908 sq. ft.

2505 Casey Key Rd., Nokomis - $6,500,000

#3. 13,553 sq. ft.

712 N. Casey Rd., Osprey - $8,000,000

#2. 13,816 sq. ft.

2850 Union St., Clearwater - $3,128,500

#1. 28,893 sq. ft.

706 Guisando de Avila, Tampa - $5,580,000

Largest Condos

#5. 5,200 sq. ft.

1700 Gulf Blvd. #4S, North Redington Beach - $1,650,000

#4. 5,231 sq. ft.

1700 Gulf Blvd. #6N, North Redington Beach - $1,705,000

#3. 5,370 sq. ft.

18270 Sunset Blvd. #A, Redington Shores - $2,000,000

#2. 5,400 sq. ft.

19520 Gulf Blvd. #502, Indian Shores - $2,550,000

#1. 5,585 sq. ft.

464 Golden Gate Pt., Penthouse 9B, Sarasota - $4,250,000

19520 Gulf Blvd.

Longest Time on the Market

#5. 7 years, 6 months, 8 days

10365 Paradise Ct. #36, Treasure Island - $97,000

#t4. 7 years, 7 months, 17 days

712 N. Casey Rd., Osprey - $8,000,000

#t4. 7 years, 7 months, 17 days

799 E. Gulf Blvd., Indian Rocks Beach - $675,000

#2. 7 years, 8 months, 11 days

1695 Pinellas Ave. S., Unit E2, Tierra Verde - $415,000

#1. 2,904 days - 7 years, 11 months, 19 days

6718 70th Ave. N., Pinellas Park - $178,000

799 E. Gulf Blvd.

Most Outdoor Space

#5. 3,664 sq. ft.

3206 Mermaid Ct., New Port Richey - $641,500

#4. 4,079 sq. ft.

6016 Kipps Colony Dr., Gulfport - $570,000

#3. 4,210 sq. ft.

360 El Greco Dr., Osprey - $885,000

#2. 4,212 sq. ft.

160 Sanctuary Dr., Crystal Beach - $735,000

#1. 4,370 sq. ft.

3461 Bayou Sound, Longboat Key - $1,785,000

Most Expensive Homes

#5. $7,070,000

3466 Gulfmead Dr., Sarasota

#4. $8,000,000

712 N. Casey Key, Osprey

#3. $8,850,000

8250 Sanderling Rd., Sarasota

#2. $10,250,000

4300 Higel Ave., Sarasota

#1. $11,850,000

7712 Sanderling Rd., Sarasota

Most Expensive Condos

#5. $3,800,000

2052 Benjamin Franklin Dr. #901, Sarasota

#4. $3,900,000

2052 Benjamin Franklin Dr. #1001, Sarasota

#3. $3,965,000

1300 Benjamin Franklin Dr. #801, Sarasota

#2. $4,200,000

4125 Gulf of Mexico Dr., #301, Longboat Key

#1. $4,250,000

464 Golden Gate Pt, Penthouse 9B, Sarasota

Largest Piece of Property Sold

#5. 56.00 acres

6035 Wuchula Rd., Myakka City - $715,000

#4. 105.35 acres

14820 Country Rd. 675, Parrish - $625,000

#3. 125.87 acres

31940 Clay Gully Rd., Myakka City - $1,250,000

#2. 131.02 acres

32301 Singletary Rd., Myakka City - $1,275,000

#1. 160.00 acres

31045 Betts Rd., Myakka City - $950,000

Most Expensive Price per Square Foot Home

#5. $1,345.29/sf

325 Casey Key Rd., Nokomis - $1,199,999

#4. $1,798.25/sf

621 Casey Key Rd., Nokomis - $2,050,000

#3. $2,005.74/sf

165 Whittier Dr., Sarasota - $3,496,000

#2. $2,083.33/sf

203 Sprice Ave., Anna Maria - $1,450,000

#1. $2,513.26/sf

7712 Sanderling Rd., Sarasota - $11,850,000

7712 Sanderling Rd.

Most Expensive Property Taxes

#5. $72,040

2505 Casey Key Rd., Nokomis - $6,500,000

#4. $72,270

2735 Gulf of Mexico Dr., Longboat Key - $5,750,000

#3. $89,660

2016 Casey Key Rd., Nokomis - $6,200,000

#2. $97,153

125 18th St., Belleair Beach - $6,700,000

#1. $125,791

712 N. Casey Key Dr., Osprey - $8,000,000

Most Expensive Cash-Only Transaction

#5. $4,250,000

464 Golden Gate Pt., Penthouse 9B, Sarasota

#4. $5,750,000

2735 Gulf of Mexico Dr., Longboat Key

#3. $6,200,000

2016 Casey Key Rd., Nokomis

#2. $6,500,000

2505 Casey Key Rd., Nokomis

#1. $8,000,000

712 N. Casey Key Rd., Osprey

Oldest Home Sold

#5. 1897

1711 W. Jetton Ave., Tampa - $579,000

#4. 1896

6835 Shamrock Rd., Tampa - $289,000

#3. 1890

2001 E. 2nd Ave. #14, Ybor City - $206,000

#2. 1885

115 S. Spring Blvd, Tarpon Springs - $740,000

#1. 1873

1015 S. Oak Ave., Bartow - $70,900

115 S. Spring Blvd.

All of the data was based on all completed, residential transactions from January 1, 2014 until December 15, 2014 in the counties of Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Polk, Manatee, and Sarasota from the Mid-Florida Regional Multiple Listing Services. Pictures are credited to individual listing agents and MFRMLS.